Press Releas
\nKathmandu, 9 June, A below-normal monsoon forecast for parts of Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) in 2026 is not expected to reduce disaster risks, with scientists warning that short bursts of intense rainfall, rising temperatures, and growing water stress could make the season increasingly dangerous.<\/p>\n
The Hindu Kush Himalay (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026, published today, projects lower-than-normal rainfall across several countries, including Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region. <\/p>\n
Despite this, experts caution that the risk of flash floods, landslides and other hazards remains high.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,\u201d said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD. \u201cCommunities and authorities need to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories.”<\/p>\n
The combination of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures is expected to increase both drought and flood risks during the same season. Long dry spells may be followed by sudden heavy downpours, creating conditions for flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountain areas.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe outlook points to a drier monsoon overall, but that does not mean lower risk,\u201d Manish Shrestha added. \u201cShort, intense rainfall events can still trigger serious hazards.\u201d<\/p>\n
Warmer conditions are also likely to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability. Lower snow persistence at the start of the season further weakens the region\u2019s natural water buffer, making river systems and groundwater recharge more sensitive to rainfall variability.<\/p>\n
\u201cLower snow persistence means the region is entering the monsoon with a reduced seasonal water buffer,\u201d said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.<\/p>\n
Experts say these combined risks are already complicating disaster planning and response management across South Asia.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe growing unpredictability of the monsoon is already creating coordination challenges,\u201d said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and DRR Lead at ICIMOD. \u201cPreparedness now requires stronger coordination between government, technical agencies, and local authorities.\u201d<\/p>\n
The outlook highlights increasing pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems, as well as heightened vulnerability in both rural and urban areas.<\/p>\n
\u201cErratic rainfall following long dry spells increases the risk of landslides,\u201d said Ranit Chatterjee, CEO of Rika India. \u201cThis can worsen socio-economic pressures, including migration, rising food prices, energy stress, and disruptions to tourism.\u201d<\/p>\n
Scientists also stress the need for stronger early warning systems and impact-based forecasting.<\/p>\n
\u201cDrought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately,\u201d said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Adviser at ICIMOD. \u201cEarly warning systems, short-term forecasts, and locally driven preparedness need to work together to address increasingly complex hazards.\u201d<\/p>\n
With climate variability increasing, experts warn that preparing for a single type of hazard is no longer sufficient.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe era of preparing for a single, predictable hazard is over,\u201d said Saswata Sanyal, DRR specialist at ICIMOD. \u201cAnticipatory action and early warning must now be the foundation.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Hindu Kush Himalay (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026, is based on forecasts from multiple global and regional climate models and is intended to support governments, disaster management agencies, and communities in planning and preparedness ahead of the June\u2013September monsoon season.
\nBangladesh
\n\u201cThe monsoon outlook points to a challenging season with combined risks of heat and uneven rainfall,\u201d said A.K.M. Saiful Islam, Professor at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology. Disaster management agencies need to strengthen impact-based forecasting and preparedness, the risks are increasingly complex and interconnected.\u201d <\/p>\n
India
\n\u201cThe outlook gives disaster management authorities a critical window to prepare,\u201d said Navneet Yadav, Team Lead for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience at Palladium India. \u201cEven within a weaker monsoon, short and intense rainfall can still trigger flash floods and landslides in mountain valleys.\u201d <\/p>\n
Nepal
\n\u201cEven in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,\u201d said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD. \u201cCommunities and authorities need to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories.\u201d <\/p>\n
Pakistan
\n\u201cBelow-normal snow persistence means the monsoon is starting with a weaker seasonal water buffer,\u201d said Sher Muhammad, Remote Sensing Specialist. \u201cWarmer temperatures combined with reduced rainfall could limit the recharge of rivers, springs, and other water systems”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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